Tagged “risk”
Entries across every discipline that share this thread.
Circle of Competence
Know the boundary of what you actually understand — and operate inside it.
Read entry → Mental modelCompounding
Small gains that build on themselves grow slowly, then astonishingly fast.
Read entry → How to thinkHow to Think About Decisions Under Uncertainty
Judge decisions by the quality of the process, not the outcome — and think in probabilities, not certainties.
Read entry → How to thinkHow to Think About Risk
Separate the probability of an outcome from the size of its consequences — and respect ruin.
Read entry → Cognitive biasLoss Aversion
A loss hurts about twice as much as an equivalent gain feels good.
Read entry → Mental modelMargin of Safety
Build in a buffer so that being wrong — and you will be — doesn't ruin you.
Read entry → Mental modelOpportunity Cost
The true cost of any choice is the best alternative you gave up to make it.
Read entry → Mental modelSecond-Order Thinking
Ask "and then what?" — trace the consequences of your consequences before you act.
Read entry → Cognitive biasSunk-Cost Fallacy
Continuing something because of what you've already spent, not what it's now worth.
Read entry → Cognitive biasSurvivorship Bias
Judging from the winners you can see, while the losers who'd change the story are invisible.
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