How to Think
Applied framings that compose several models and biases into a way to reason about a real situation.
How to think
How to Think About Decisions Under Uncertainty
Judge decisions by the quality of the process, not the outcome — and think in probabilities, not certainties.
How to thinkHow to Think About Incentives
To predict behaviour, look at what people are rewarded for — not what they say.
How to thinkHow to Think About Risk
Separate the probability of an outcome from the size of its consequences — and respect ruin.