Browse all entries
Every published model, bias and explainer — cross-linked and cited.
Anchoring
The first number you see quietly drags every later estimate towards it.
Cognitive biasAvailability Heuristic
We judge how likely something is by how easily examples come to mind.
Mental modelCircle of Competence
Know the boundary of what you actually understand — and operate inside it.
Mental modelCompounding
Small gains that build on themselves grow slowly, then astonishingly fast.
Cognitive biasConfirmation Bias
We seek, favour and remember evidence that fits what we already believe.
Cognitive biasDunning–Kruger Effect
The less skilled we are at something, the more we tend to overrate our skill at it.
Mental modelFirst-Principles Thinking
Break a problem down to what you know is true, then reason up from there.
How to thinkHow to Think About Decisions Under Uncertainty
Judge decisions by the quality of the process, not the outcome — and think in probabilities, not certainties.
How to thinkHow to Think About Incentives
To predict behaviour, look at what people are rewarded for — not what they say.
How to thinkHow to Think About Risk
Separate the probability of an outcome from the size of its consequences — and respect ruin.
Mental modelInversion
Solve a problem by asking how to guarantee the opposite of what you want — then avoid that.
Cognitive biasLoss Aversion
A loss hurts about twice as much as an equivalent gain feels good.
Mental modelMargin of Safety
Build in a buffer so that being wrong — and you will be — doesn't ruin you.
Mental modelOpportunity Cost
The true cost of any choice is the best alternative you gave up to make it.
Mental modelSecond-Order Thinking
Ask "and then what?" — trace the consequences of your consequences before you act.
Cognitive biasSunk-Cost Fallacy
Continuing something because of what you've already spent, not what it's now worth.
Cognitive biasSurvivorship Bias
Judging from the winners you can see, while the losers who'd change the story are invisible.
Mental modelThe Map Is Not the Territory
Every model is a simplification of reality — useful, but never the thing itself.