Tagged “probabilistic”
Entries across every discipline that share this thread.
Cognitive bias
Anchoring
The first number you see quietly drags every later estimate towards it.
Cognitive biasAvailability Heuristic
We judge how likely something is by how easily examples come to mind.
Mental modelCompounding
Small gains that build on themselves grow slowly, then astonishingly fast.
How to thinkHow to Think About Decisions Under Uncertainty
Judge decisions by the quality of the process, not the outcome — and think in probabilities, not certainties.
How to thinkHow to Think About Risk
Separate the probability of an outcome from the size of its consequences — and respect ruin.
Mental modelMargin of Safety
Build in a buffer so that being wrong — and you will be — doesn't ruin you.
Cognitive biasSurvivorship Bias
Judging from the winners you can see, while the losers who'd change the story are invisible.