Tagged “probabilistic”

Entries across every discipline that share this thread.

Cognitive bias

The first number you see quietly drags every later estimate towards it.

We judge how likely something is by how easily examples come to mind.

Small gains that build on themselves grow slowly, then astonishingly fast.

Judge decisions by the quality of the process, not the outcome — and think in probabilities, not certainties.

Separate the probability of an outcome from the size of its consequences — and respect ruin.

Build in a buffer so that being wrong — and you will be — doesn't ruin you.

Judging from the winners you can see, while the losers who'd change the story are invisible.

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