Systems Thinking
Seeing feedback loops, second-order effects and the whole rather than the parts.
Mental model
First-Principles Thinking
Break a problem down to what you know is true, then reason up from there.
How to thinkHow to Think About Incentives
To predict behaviour, look at what people are rewarded for — not what they say.
Mental modelInversion
Solve a problem by asking how to guarantee the opposite of what you want — then avoid that.
Mental modelSecond-Order Thinking
Ask "and then what?" — trace the consequences of your consequences before you act.
Mental modelThe Map Is Not the Territory
Every model is a simplification of reality — useful, but never the thing itself.