Psychology
How the mind actually works — including the predictable ways it misjudges.
Anchoring
The first number you see quietly drags every later estimate towards it.
Cognitive biasAvailability Heuristic
We judge how likely something is by how easily examples come to mind.
Mental modelCircle of Competence
Know the boundary of what you actually understand — and operate inside it.
Cognitive biasConfirmation Bias
We seek, favour and remember evidence that fits what we already believe.
Cognitive biasDunning–Kruger Effect
The less skilled we are at something, the more we tend to overrate our skill at it.
Cognitive biasLoss Aversion
A loss hurts about twice as much as an equivalent gain feels good.
Cognitive biasSunk-Cost Fallacy
Continuing something because of what you've already spent, not what it's now worth.
Cognitive biasSurvivorship Bias
Judging from the winners you can see, while the losers who'd change the story are invisible.
Mental modelThe Map Is Not the Territory
Every model is a simplification of reality — useful, but never the thing itself.