Decision-Making
Frameworks for choosing well under real-world constraints, trade-offs and uncertainty.
Anchoring
The first number you see quietly drags every later estimate towards it.
Mental modelCircle of Competence
Know the boundary of what you actually understand — and operate inside it.
Cognitive biasConfirmation Bias
We seek, favour and remember evidence that fits what we already believe.
Cognitive biasDunning–Kruger Effect
The less skilled we are at something, the more we tend to overrate our skill at it.
Mental modelFirst-Principles Thinking
Break a problem down to what you know is true, then reason up from there.
How to thinkHow to Think About Decisions Under Uncertainty
Judge decisions by the quality of the process, not the outcome — and think in probabilities, not certainties.
How to thinkHow to Think About Risk
Separate the probability of an outcome from the size of its consequences — and respect ruin.
Mental modelInversion
Solve a problem by asking how to guarantee the opposite of what you want — then avoid that.
Mental modelMargin of Safety
Build in a buffer so that being wrong — and you will be — doesn't ruin you.
Mental modelOpportunity Cost
The true cost of any choice is the best alternative you gave up to make it.
Mental modelSecond-Order Thinking
Ask "and then what?" — trace the consequences of your consequences before you act.