Decision-Making
Frameworks for choosing well under real-world constraints, trade-offs and uncertainty.
Anchoring
The first number you see quietly drags every later estimate towards it.
Read entry → Mental modelCircle of Competence
Know the boundary of what you actually understand — and operate inside it.
Read entry → Cognitive biasConfirmation Bias
We seek, favour and remember evidence that fits what we already believe.
Read entry → Cognitive biasDunning–Kruger Effect
The less skilled we are at something, the more we tend to overrate our skill at it.
Read entry → Mental modelFirst-Principles Thinking
Break a problem down to what you know is true, then reason up from there.
Read entry → How to thinkHow to Think About Decisions Under Uncertainty
Judge decisions by the quality of the process, not the outcome — and think in probabilities, not certainties.
Read entry → How to thinkHow to Think About Risk
Separate the probability of an outcome from the size of its consequences — and respect ruin.
Read entry → Mental modelInversion
Solve a problem by asking how to guarantee the opposite of what you want — then avoid that.
Read entry → Mental modelMargin of Safety
Build in a buffer so that being wrong — and you will be — doesn't ruin you.
Read entry → Mental modelOpportunity Cost
The true cost of any choice is the best alternative you gave up to make it.
Read entry → Mental modelSecond-Order Thinking
Ask "and then what?" — trace the consequences of your consequences before you act.
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